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Impact of Сlimate Сhanges on Aquatic Vegetation of Hydromeliorative Facilities

Distributions of 20 aquatic associations in the Danube-Tisza-Danube hydrosystem were mapped using published data and personal field observations resulting in 562 georeferenced collection sites. The Maxent modeling software was used to estimate the current potential and future distribution of the associations by the year 2050 (2xCO2 climate conditions, CCM3 model). Based on the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), climate data at the collection sites described climatic preferences of different aquatic associations. The central-eastern part of the investigated area showed the most favorable climatic conditions for aquatic vegetation growth and thus the highest potential for future biodiversity. The stands of Lemnetum trisulcae, Ceratophyllo–Azolletum filiculoides, Najadetum marinae, Salvinio natantis–Spirodeletum polyrhizae, Elodeetum canadensis and Potametum denso-nodosi associations displayed a marked invasive potential in the forecasted distribution scenarios. The results revealed that the stands of Nymphaeetum albae and Nymphaeo albae–Nupharetum luteae subass. nupharetosum associations are likely to be significantly less abundant in the future. As the key climatic factors used in the analysis were annual mean temperature, as well as mean temperature of the wettest and warmest quartile, the findings suggest that, if adequate protective measures shall not be taken, these provenances could become degraded in the next decade and some could even become extinct at the locations where they presently occur naturally.

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Сибирский экологический журнал, 3 (2015) 363378 УДК 574.5 DOI.10.15372/SEJ20150304 Impact of Сlimate Сhanges on Aquatic Vegetation of Hydromeliorative Facilities D. DIGURSKI, B. LJEVNAIЖ-MAIЖ, D. MILIЖ, J. AИANSKI Faculty of Agriculture University of Novi Sad 21000, Serbia, Novi Sad E-mail: dejanà@polj.uns.ac.rs Статья поступила 17.03.2014 Принята к печати 14.10.2014 ABSTRACT Distributions of 20 aquatic associations in the Danube-Tisza-Danube hydrosystem were mapped using published data and personal field observations resulting in 562 georeferenced collection sites. <...> Based on the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), climate data at the collection sites described climatic preferences of different aquatic associations. <...> The stands of Lemnetum trisulcae, CeratophylloAzolletum filiculoides, Najadetum marinae, Salvinio natantisSpirodeletum polyrhizae, Elodeetum canadensis and Potametum denso-nodosi associations displayed a marked invasive potential in the forecasted distribution scenarios. <...> The results revealed that the stands of Nymphaeetum albae and Nymphaeo albaeNupharetum luteae subass. nupharetosum associations are likely to be significantly less abundant in the future. <...> CeratophylloAzolletum filiculoides Nedelcu 1967 Alliance: Utricularion vulgaris Passarge 1964 Ass. <...> Najadetum minoris Ubrizsy 1961 Lemnetum trisulcae is submerged, barerooted, association. <...> In addition to the edificator Lemnа trisulca L., floating Lemnа minor L. and Hydrocharis morsus-ranàe L., as well as submerged Ceratophyllum demersum L., also contribute to the physiognomic character of these floristicly poor stands. <...> Its main contributors are Lemnа minor and Spirodela polyrhhiza (L.) Schleid, along with Ceratophyllum demersum, Lemnа gibba L. and Salvinia nаtans (L.) Allioni. <...> In addition to the edificator, Lemnа minor, Ceratophyllum demersum, Salvinia nаtans and Spirodela polyrrhiza also contribute to the physiognomic character of this phytocenosis Salvinio natantisSpirodeletum polyrhizae forms a long belt along the semiaquatic vegetation. <...> Along with the edificators, Lemna minor and Ceratophyllum demersum are also common in these stands. <...> CeratophylloAzolletum filiculoides typically forms islands or narrow belts along the emerged vegetation. <...> The basic physiognomic character of these floristicly poor stands provide Azolla filiculoides Lam. and Ceratophyllum demersum, as well as Lemnа minor, Lemnа <...>
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